Counterfactual reasoning

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1. Counterfactual reasoning

Counter-factual reasoning, or logic, is reasoning that is "counter to fact" and is one of the basic ways in which humans reason and is part of the field called "casual reasoning".

Human beings tend to reason using counter-factual (counter to fact, or what if) logic, as pointed out by famous computer scientist Judea Pearl.

2. Judea Pearl

Judea Pearl was the winner of the 2011 ACM Turing Award for "For fundamental contributions to artificial intelligence through the development of a calculus for probabilistic and causal reasoning ".

More: Judea Pearl

3. Probabilistic reasoning in intelligent systems

Probabilistic reasoning in intelligent systems

4. Speed cameras

The following has been noticed.

A lot of accidents at an intersection.
A speed camera installed.
Accidents at that intersection go down.
Claim than speed camera installation caused intersection to be more safe.

Is this a causal relationship? Did the speed camera cause the accidents to decrease?

What are other reasons why accidents might have gone down at this intersection?

5. Counterfactual claim

For causation, the following argument is often used.

If the speed camera had not been installed, the accident rate at that intersection would not have gone down.

How do we know what might have happened if the speed camera were not installed?

6. End of page

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